How can we infer the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a population, and how can we derive effective mitigation measures? How can approaches from statistical physics contribute to the design of pandemic response strategies?
We recapitulate the basic principles of spreading dynamics, and highlight their implications for collective dynamics. On this basis, we compare different COVID-19 mitigation strategies. In particular, we demonstrate a tipping point for the test-trace-isolate system, which incurs (transient) supra-exponential growth.
We then show that the pace of lifting restrictions is mainly determined by the progress of vaccination, and finally investigate the emergence of novel variants and infer their relative spreading rates.
With this work, we contribute to the basic understanding of spreading dynamics in populations, and provide approaches, which may guide mitigation policies.
References: Bauer et al., Plos Comp Biol., 2021; Contreras et al., Nat Commun., 2021; Dehning et al., Science, 2020; Priesemann et al., The Lancet 2021 a,b,c
22. Oktober 2021, 14:00-15:30
Online per Zoom
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